The Truth About Where Home Prices Are Heading

There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

What’s Happening Right Now

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest.

What the Experts Say

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows that prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years—just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. This kind of steady, sustainable growth should help ease your fears about the years ahead.

Here’s how expert projections break down:

• The average forecast is about 3.3% annual price growth through 2029.

• The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.

• The pessimists still project about 1.3% growth per year.

While not everyone agrees on the exact number, the key takeaway is this: no expert group is calling for a major national decline or crash.

Why That’s Good News for Buyers and Sellers

More moderate price growth is a good thing. It helps cool the rapid spikes we saw during the past few years and leads to a more stable housing market. Some areas may see prices hold flat or dip slightly, especially where more inventory is available. Others may see faster growth due to limited supply.

Importantly, even the most conservative experts still predict price increases over the next five years. That’s largely because:

• Foreclosures remain low

• Lending standards are strong

• Homeowners have near-record levels of equity

These factors help prevent a flood of forced sales that could drive prices down.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been on the fence about your real estate plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The housing market isn’t heading for a crash. It’s moving toward steady, long-term growth, with some ups and downs in specific regions.

Want to know what that means for your neighborhood? National trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code.

Let’s Talk About Your Local Market

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