Will the Housing Market Crash? Experts Say No

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

If you’ve been scrolling through social media or watching the news lately, you’ve probably seen bold claims about an upcoming housing crash. Many headlines predict falling prices and fear a repeat of 2008. But the actual data tells a very different story.

The housing market today is fundamentally stronger and more stable. While growth has slowed compared to the pandemic years, experts overwhelmingly agree that a crash isn’t coming. Instead, we’re heading toward a period of steady, sustainable appreciation.

What Experts Are Actually Predicting

Every quarter, Fannie Mae releases its Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), which gathers input from over 100 top economists and housing analysts. According to the latest report, the experts agree that home prices will continue to rise nationally through at least 2029.

Here’s what that means in simple terms:

• Home prices are projected to increase by roughly 2–3.5% each year for the next five years.

• That translates to an overall 15% price increase nationally through the end of 2029.

• Even the most cautious analysts—those with the lowest expectations—predict around 5% growth in that same period.

• The most optimistic experts foresee up to 25–26% appreciation.

No matter how you slice it, not a single major forecast predicts a widespread price collapse.

Putting It in Perspective

Some buyers and sellers feel uneasy because home prices aren’t skyrocketing the way they did in 2020–2022. But that’s actually a good thing. During those years, record-low interest rates and a severe shortage of available homes pushed prices up at an unsustainable pace.

In many local markets, homes appreciated 15–20% per year—far above the long-term national average of around 4–5% annually. Those rapid increases made housing less affordable and created intense competition among buyers.

Now, with higher mortgage rates cooling demand and inventory slowly improving, home price growth has returned to a healthier pace. A 2–3% annual increase may sound modest compared to pandemic gains, but it’s much more sustainable for the long term.

Why a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon

One of the biggest misconceptions floating around is that “what goes up must come down.” But that logic doesn’t hold up in housing. Historically, home prices tend to rise over time, even through economic ups and downs.

The main reason we’re not facing a repeat of 2008 comes down to supply and demand:

• Supply is still far too low. The U.S. has millions fewer homes than households that want to own one. Builders slowed production for years after the Great Recession, and catching up takes time.

• Demand remains strong. Even with higher mortgage rates, many people still want or need to buy a home—especially Millennials entering their peak homebuying years.

This imbalance means there simply aren’t enough homes to meet demand, which keeps upward pressure on prices.

What About the Economy?

Some people worry that broader economic uncertainty could trigger falling prices. But history shows that the housing market is remarkably resilient. Over the past 50 years, the U.S. has weathered recessions, inflation spikes, and global crises—and through it all, home values have always rebounded.

Housing is closely tied to basic human need. People always need places to live, and owning a home remains a cornerstone of building long-term wealth.

In fact, as inflation stabilizes and interest rates gradually adjust, the housing market is expected to enter a recovery phase, setting the stage for continued, moderate growth.

What This Means for Buyers

If you’ve been waiting to buy because you’re afraid of a crash, you might want to reconsider. Buying sooner rather than later could mean locking in a lower price before steady appreciation pushes values higher.

While mortgage rates remain a key factor, homeownership still offers long-term financial benefits. Over time, paying your mortgage builds equity—something renting can’t do.

What This Means for Sellers

If you’re thinking about selling, today’s market can still work in your favor. Even though price growth has slowed, buyer demand remains strong, especially for move-in-ready homes. Properly priced listings continue to attract attention and competitive offers.

And since inventory is still below normal levels, you’re not competing against as many homes as you might in a fully balanced market.

The Bottom Line

Despite the chatter, the U.S. housing market is not headed for a crash. The data from leading economists and real estate experts points to steady, sustainable growth—not decline.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, it’s time to look past the headlines and focus on facts. Prices are projected to rise nationally over the next five years. The only question is how much.

To connect with me directly, contact me at 917-254-2103.
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